山东省卫生人力资源组合预测模型构建及应用

Construction and application of combination forecasting model of health human resources in Shandong Province

[目的]探究山东省卫生人力资源供给状况,为区域卫生人力资源供需平衡提供规划依据。[方法]采用时间序列模型、灰色预测模型、二次回归模型和基于方差倒数法的组合预测模型,对2019-2025年山东省卫生人员的数量进行预测,比较预测精度。[结果]组合预测模型的预测误差评估指标中,MAD、MSE和MAPE的值分别为8.8650、2.8291和0.4251,均优于单项预测模型,可以较好的模拟和预测山东省卫生技术人员在时间序列上的变化趋势,模型构建合理可行。经预测,2019-2025年山东省卫生人员数量呈逐年递增趋势,年均增长率为4.01%。[结论]组合预测模型更适合山东省卫生人力资源预测,未来山东省卫生人力资源发展规模逐渐扩大,但供需矛盾依然存在,分布不均状况逐年加剧。

Objective To explore supply situation of health human resources in Shandong Province so as to provide planning basis for supply and demand balance of health human resources in Shandong Province.Methods Time-series model and grey prediction model,quadratic regression and combination forecasting model based on reciprocal variance method were used to predict the number of health workers in Shandong Province from 2019 to 2025,and compared prediction accuracy.Results In prediction error evaluation indicators of combined prediction model,the value of MAD,MSE and MAPE was 8.8650,2.8291 and 0.4251 respectively,which were better than the single prediction model,and could better simulate and predict variation trend of health technicians on time series in Shandong Province,model construction was reasonable and feasible.It was predicted that the number of health personnel in Shandong Province would showed progressive increase year by year from 2019 to 2025,with average annual growth rate of 4.01%.Conclusions The combination forecasting model is more suitable for the prediction of health human resources in Shandong Province.In the future,the scale of health human resources development in Shandong Province will gradually expand,but the contradiction between supply and demand still exists,the uneven distribution situation is increasing year by year.