社交媒体环境下突发事件严重性评估和预警机制研究

Emergency Severity Assessment and Early warning Mechanism in the Social Media Environment

[目的/意义]突发事件的快速蔓延与恶化使得应急管理部门需实时评估突发事件的严重性,并建立科学的预警机制。微博等社交媒体平台为突发事件的实时研判提供了丰富的线索。[方法/过程]从网民作用、网媒作用、事态扩散、态度倾向、网民情感等维度构建突发事件严重性评估指标,提出突发事件严重性指标的影响倾向分析及特征比较方法。以2018年“8•24乐清女孩乘车遇害案”“5•6郑州空姐打车遇害案”“8·27昆山持刀砍人案”和2017年“携程亲子园虐童事件”这4个社会安全事件的1107308条微博数据为例,通过突发事件严重性指标的影响倾向分析,划分突发事件严重性等级,建立突发事件预警机制。[结果/结论]研究结果建立了突发事件的量化分级标准,为政府及时采取应急管理措施提供方法指引与数据支持。

[Purpose/significance]Due to the rapid spread and deterioration of publie emergencies,emergency management departments need to evaluate the severity of emergencies in real time and establish a scientifie early warning mechanism.Microblogging and other social media platforms provide rich clues for the real-time study and judgment of emergencies.[Method process]This study constructed the severity assessment indexes of emergencies from the dimensions of the netizens’role,the Internet media's role,the spread of events,attitudes and feelings of netizens.The methods of analyzing the influence tendency of the emergency severity indexes and comparing the fea-tures were put forward.A total of 1107308 microblogging entries regarding four social security incidents of“8.24 Yueqing Girl Riding Murder”“5.6 Zhengzhou Stewardess Taxi Murder”“8.27 Kunshan Knife-Cutting Case”in 2018 and“Ctrip Kindergarten Abuse Incident”in 2017 were investigated.[Result/conclusion]The results of the study establish a quantitative classifcation standard for public emergencies,and provide method guidance and data support for the governments to take emergency management measures in time.