南亚与北非地区温度、降水量与沙漠蝗发生程度的相关性分析

Correlation analysis between temperature, precipitation and occurrence degree of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria in South Asia and North Africa

为分析沙漠蝗Schistocerca gregaria发生程度与其发源地以及主要迁徙路线上气象因子的关系,本研究统计1992—2019年沙漠蝗发源地和2条主要迁徙路线上9个主要国家的年平均温度、年平均降水量及当年沙漠蝗灾害发生程度,并对其相关性进行分析。结果表明,埃塞俄比亚、索马里和苏丹3个沙漠蝗发源地国家的沙漠蝗重度发生与轻度发生时的年平均降水量之间差异显著;沙漠蝗2条迁徙路线上的沙特阿拉伯沙、巴基斯坦、伊朗、阿尔及利亚、马里和毛里塔尼亚6个国家沙漠蝗重度发生时的年平均降水量显著高于轻度和中度发生时的年平均降水量,但中度发生时的年平均降水量与轻度发生时的年平均降水量之间差异不显著。在近20年中,沙漠蝗发源地和2条迁徙路线上9个主要国家沙漠蝗发生程度不同时,其年平均温度均无显著差异。因此年平均降水量为沙漠蝗发生的一个主要限制性因素。

In order to analyze the relationships between the occurrence degree of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria and the meteorological factors of the birthplace and main migration routes, the annual average temperature, annual average precipitation and the occurrence degree of S. gregaria in nine major countries along their birthplaces and two major migratory routes during 1992—2019 were collected,and the correlation between them was analyzed. The results showed that there were significant differences in the annual average precipitation between severe and mild occurrence degrees of S. gregaria in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, the main countries from where S. gregaria originated. In the two migration routes covering six countries, including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iran, Algeria, Mali and Mauritania,their annual average precipitations when the occurrence degree of S. gregaria was severe were significantly higher than those when the occurrence degree of S. gregaria was mild and moderate, but the annual average precipitation when the occurrence degree of S. gregaria was mild was not significantly different from that when the occurrence degree of S. gregaria was moderate. During the past 20 years,there was no significant difference between the annual average temperature of the nine major countries in the origin and along the two migration routes of S. gregaria when the occurrence degree of S. gregaria was different. Therefore, annual average precipitation was a major limiting factor for the occurrence degree of S. gregaria.