考虑碰撞前行为的交叉口自行车碰撞事故分析:随机参数次序Probit方法

Analysis of bicyclist-vehicle crash at intersection area considering behavior prior to crash:A random parameter ordinal probit approach

为了分析交叉路口自行车与机动车碰撞事故严重程度的风险因素,尤其是与道路使用者行为相关的因素,以综合评估系统中收集的2011—2015年的事故记录为依据,进行实证型研究.经过初步筛选,解释变量被分为骑车人的特征和行为、驾驶员的特征和行为、车辆特征、交叉路口条件和时间5个主要类别.采用RPOP模型探索显著的影响因素和相应的异质性.结果表明,骑车人不遵守交通信号、不分享路权、突然冲出和骑车前饮酒都会增加骑车人的伤害严重度,致死伤害的可能性分别增加53.2%、40.0%、86.3%、211.5%.此外,驾驶员注意力不集中、超速、直行和左转弯增加了骑车人的撞车风险,致死伤害的可能性分别增加134.5%、186.5%、69.3%、22.7%.其他指标如年龄、性别、车辆类型、交通信号和交叉路口类型也会影响伤害的严重程度.

In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecting accident records from 2011 to 2015 from the General Estimates System.After preliminary screening,the variables were classified into 5 main categories including cyclists characteristic and behavior,drivers characteristic and behavior,vehicle characteristic,intersection condition,and time.The random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)was used to study the significant influencing factors and corresponding heterogeneity.The results show that failing to obey traffic signals,failing to yield to right-of-way,dash and drinking before cycling can increase the injury severity for cyclists,and the corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 53.2%,40.0%,86.3%,and 211.5%,respectively.Moreover,drivers inattention,speeding,going straight and left turning increase the risk of crashing for cyclists.The corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 134.5%,186.5%,69.3%,and 22.7%,respectively.Other indicators such as age,gender,vehicle type,traffic signal and intersection type can also affect injury severity.