北京驾驶员培训行业需求预测和发展研究

Research on Demand Forecast and Development of Driver Training Industry in Beijing

机动车驾驶员的素质能够对城市交通运行产生重大影响,良好的技术水平和高尚道德素质的驾驶员,对于保证城市交通安全运行和人民生命财产的安全至关重要。通过开展驾驶员培训市场需求总量的预测研究,能够有效引导培训市场的合理竞争,提升驾驶员培训行业的高质量发展。本文系统分析了驾驶员培训市场需求预测的方法,以北京驾培市场为实例,基于城市新总规,综合考虑经济社会发展、城市人口变化、城市机动车调控和驾驶证饱和率等多种因素,预测未来培训市场需求情况。根据预测结果和市场培训能力对比,提出了针对行业总量发展的对策建议,也能为国内城市进行驾培需求预测研究和行业发展提供参考。

The quality of motor vehicle drivers has a significant impact on urban traffic operations. Drivers with good technical level and noble ethical quality are essential to ensure the safe operation of urban traffic and the safety of people’s lives and property. Carrying out a forecasting research on the total demand for driver training market, is able to effectively guide reasonable competition in the training market, and improve the high-quality development of the driver training industry. This article systematically analyzes the method of forecasting the market demand for driver training. Based on the new urban master plan, comprehensively considering various factors such as economic and social development, urban population changes, urban motor vehicle regulation, and driver’s license saturation rate, we predict the future training market demand. According to the prediction results and market training ability comparison, we put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the development of the industry ’s total volume, which can also provide a reference for domestic cities to conduct research on driving training demand forecasting and industry development.