销售表现的空间依赖性分析--以零售药店为例

The spatial dependency analysis of sales estimation--Based on pharmaceutical retail

这篇研究以连锁零售药店为研究对象,结合药品这种商品的特殊性,将空间计量回归引入到销售表现估计模型中.实证结果表明:空间自回归模型最适合零售药店的销售估计模型,使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗抽样估计得出的系数表明,不同药店的被解释变量之间存在显著的空间依赖性.随后,对各个因素进行直接效应和间接效应的分析,在空间滞后模型中发现是否是医保定点药店以及是否是院边店呈现出十分显著的直接效应,是否是医保店还有十分显著的正向间接效应.本文的研究拓展了销售表现的估计模型,对于商业选址等管理运营也具有较强的实践意义.

This study focuses on chain retail pharmacies,combines with the characteristics of pharmaceutical products,introduces spatial econometric regression to sales estimation models.The result of the empirical study shows that spatial autoregressive model fits the sales factor model of retailing best.The estimation made by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling exhibits that there exist to be significant spatial dependency between explained variables in different pharmacies.Then in SAR model,the explanatory variables—whether a medicare pharmacy and whether adjacent to a hospital display very significant direct effects,and the another variable—whether a medicare pharmacy has a very significant positive indirect effect.This study explores the model of sales performance estimation,and shows great practical significance to operation management such as business site selection.