地理异质性、技术进步与新国际分工

Geographical heterogeneity, technological progress, and the new international specialization

在考察技术进步对新国际分工的影响机制时,不仅需要将地理异质性特征纳入充分考虑,也应重视行业内在异质性特征和外部金融风暴冲击。本文结合引力模型思想,运用一般均衡理论模型将地理异质性、技术进步和新国际分工纳入同一研究框架,在考虑地理异质性的同时,重点讨论技术进步对新国际分工和传统国际分工影响机制差异。进一步地,采用高维度固定效应泊松拟极大似然估计(PPML-HDFE)方法,选取2000-2014年43国家与地区23个行业面板数据研究地理异质性、技术进步与新国际分工的内在联系,分行业、分时间段探讨三者内在关系中可能存在的异质性特征,实证结果与理论模型假设基本一致。本研究存在两方面政策指导意义:一是明确新国际分工的决定因素,进一步洞悉新国际分工的时空变化规律;二是从新国际分工角度,为改善"中国贸易困境"提供经验和重要启示。

When examining the impact mechanism of technological progress on the new international specialization, not only must the geographical heterogeneity characteristics be taken into full consideration, but also the inherent heterogeneity characteristics of the industry and the impact of external financial storms.This paper combines the idea of gravity model and applies general equilibrium theory model to bring geographic heterogeneity, technological progress and bilateral trade into the same research framework.While considering the geographical heterogeneity, we will focus on the differences between the impact of technological progress on the new and traditional international specialization. Further, the high-dimensional fixed-effect Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation(PPML-HDFE) method was used to select panel data from 23 industries in 43 countries and regions from 2000 to 2014 to study geographic heterogeneity, technological progress, and inner relationship.The possible heterogeneity characteristics of the three internal relationships are discussed by industry and time period. The empirical results are basically consistent with the theoretical model assumptions.There are two aspects of policy guiding significance in this study: First, the determinants of the new international division of labor are clarified, and further insight into the changing rules of the new international division of labor.Second, from the perspective of the new international division of labor, it provides experience and important inspiration for improving "China’s trade dilemma."