基于层次分析法和D-S证据理论的码头风险评估

Pier Risk Assessment Based on the AHP&DSET

在码头风险评估过程中,目前常用的方法对风险事件发生的概率和影响上有一些主观的定性分析,带有结论上的模糊性.运用一种层次分析法和证据理论结合的方法可以提高评估的准确性和可靠度,该方法通过层次分析法确定各评估因素的权重,在此过程中用D-S证据理论对专家评分数据进行融合修正,运用D-S证据理论的合成法则确定码头的风险值.将该方法应用到日照港岚山港区北作业区已建15万吨级散货泊位风险评价中,结果表明码头建设总体处于良好水平,与码头建设情况相符,验证了模型的可信度.

In the process of terminal risk assessment,the current commonly used methods have some subjective qualitative analysis on the probability and impact of risk events,with vague conclusions.This article uses a method of analytic hierarchy process and evidence theory to improve the accuracy and reliability of the evaluation.This method uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each evaluation factor.In the process,DS evidence theory is used to fuse expert score data.Applying this method to the risk assessment of a 150000 ton bulk cargo berth for the northern operation area of Lanshan Port in Rizhao Port,the results show that the terminal construction is generally in a good level and is consistent with the construction of the terminal,which verifies the reliability of the model.