船舶航行安全影响因素量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting the Safety of Ship Navigation

为了保障海上船舶航行安全,采用构建船舶航行安全影响因素鱼骨图,利用模糊层次分析法对环境条件、交通调查中船舶行为基本要素进行量化分析.运用交通模型研究不同自然环境条件下的船舶安全航行方法的特点,对基于海上船舶密度、航迹分布、交通流、交通量和船速分布、船舶到达规律、交通容量、船舶行为、船舶管理等基本要素,进行数学方法的定量分析.通过评价法对评判系统进行综合评价,总结出自然条件和海上交通调查因素影响最甚等,各因素对船舶航行安全影响程度的结论.研究结果表明:根据评价结果对系统进行调整,完善安全措施对船舶航行安全具有重要借鉴意义.

In order to ensure the safety of ship navigation at sea,the fishbone diagram of the influencing factors of ship navigation safety is constructed,and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to quantitatively analyze the environmental conditions and the basic elements of ship behavior in traffic investigation.Using traffic model to study the characteristics of ship safe navigation methods under different natural environment conditions,based on ship density,track distribution,traffic flow,traffic volume and speed distribution,ship arrival law,traffic capacity,ship behavior,ship management and other basic elements,carry on the quantitative analysis of mathematical method.Through the comprehensive evaluation of the evaluation system by the evaluation method,it is concluded that the factors of maritime traffic investigation have the greatest influence,and the influence of various factors on the safety of ship navigation is the most serious.The research results show that it is of great significance for ship navigation safety to adjust the system and improve the safety measures according to the evaluation results.