“一带一路”倡议下第三方市场合作的投资效应及模式选择

Research on Investment Effect and Mode Optimization of Third-Party Market Cooperation under the“Belt and Road”Initiative

利用2003—2018年中国对“一带一路”沿线80个国家和地区对外直接投资面板数据,运用混合回归、固定效应回归以及多期DID计量方法,实证分析第三方市场合作对中国对外直接投资的影响。结果表明:第三方市场合作可有效促进中国向合作国及“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的直接投资;第三方市场合作谅解备忘录可弥补东道国制度环境质量不足,但存在国别差异,即对中低收入或制度欠完善国家的投资促进作用比高收入或制度较为完善的国家更加显著。此外,契约合作型模式对中国对外直接投资的促进作用更为显著。

Based on the influence mechanism of the third-party market cooperation on China’s foreign direct investment, the paper uses the panel data of China’s foreign direct Investment in 80 countries from 2003 to 2018 to analyze empirically the impact of third-party market cooperation on China’s foreign direct investment by using the methods of mixed regression,fixed effect regression and multi period DID measurement methods.The results show as follow: the third-party market cooperation plays a positive role in promoting the direct investment from China to the cooperative countries and along the"Belt the Road".The third-party market cooperation can make up for the host country’s institutional environmental quality,but shows national differences.And the investment promotion effect of the low-income countries or countries with imperfect systems is more sensitive than that of high-income countries or countries with perfect systems. In addition, the contractual cooperation model has a more significant role in promoting China’s foreign direct investment.