粤港澳大湾区城市群产业集聚变动的经济效应分析

The Economic Effect of Industrial Agglomeration Change in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

对2007-2018年粤港澳大湾区核心与外围城市面板数据的分类研究发现,虽然外围城市的制造业集聚及其生产性服务业的协同集聚,均与其经济增长显著正相关,但这两类集聚指数对核心城市经济增长的影响越来越不显著,核心城市更主要依靠生产性服务业的集聚。生产性服务业集聚水平的提高,促进了核心城市的经济增长,提高了生产效率。因此,大湾区各城市应利用实际优势发展相关产业,产业间的协同集聚也应突破单一城市的限制,发挥核心城市优质服务业资源对周边区域制造业升级的带动作用,实现湾区内城市群的优势互补和协同发展。

According to the evolution of industrial agglomeration level in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,it can be divided into core cities and peripheral cities. Based on the panel data of the Bay Area from2007 to 2018, it is found that although the agglomeration of manufacturing industry and its co-agglomeration with producer services in surrounding cities are significantly positively correlated with economic growth, the impact of these two agglomeration indexes on the economic growth of core cities is no longer significant, and the economic growth of core cities begins to mainly rely on the producer services agglomeration. The improvement of the agglomeration level of producer services not only promotes the economic growth of core cities, but also improves their production efficiency. Therefore, the cities in the Bay Area should make use of their actual advantages to develop related industries,and the co-agglomeration among industries should also break through the limitations of a single city, so as to give play to the leading role of the core city’s high-quality service industry resources in the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the surrounding areas, and realize the complementary advantages and coordinated development of the urban agglomeration in the Bay Area.