基于MaxEnt模型的巨柏青藏高原生态适宜性研究

Research on Ecological Suitability of Giant Cypress on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on MaxEnt Model

基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt),利用气候、土壤、地形等环境因子与巨柏野外天然分布数据计算巨柏的潜在生态适宜区。通过交叉验证,影响巨柏潜在生态适宜区的主导因子为最冷月最低温度>-10℃、最冷季度的降水量0~20 mm、土壤持水量0.10%~0.25%和最热季度的降水量200~450 mm。生态适宜性较高区域主要位于西藏东南部雅鲁藏布江及其支流,高适宜分布区为加查县至米林县的雅江河谷周边地区;中适宜分布区为尼洋区自工布江达县以下至尼洋河口以及西巴霞曲、玉门曲周边地区。

Based on the maximum entropy model,environmental factors such as climate,soil,topography and natural distribution data of giant cypresses are used to calculate the potential ecologically suitable area of giant cypresses.Through cross-validation,the dominant factors affecting the potential area of giant cypress are the lowest temperature of the coldest month larger than-10℃,the rainfall of the coldest season of 0~20mm,the soil water holding capacity of 0.1~0.25%and the rainfall of the hottest season 200~450mm.The potential area with high ecological suitability are mainly located in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its tributaries in southeastern Tibet.The area around the Yajiang River Valley from Jiacha County to Milin County is highly suitable for distribution.The medium distribution area is Niyang District which is from Gongbujiangda and below to Niyang River Estuary together with the surrounding area of Xibaxiaqu and Yumenqu.