新常态下对外贸易结构对产业结构升级的影响

The Influence of Foreign Trade Structure on Industrial Structure Upgrading under the New Normal

经济新常态下,内需与外需同样重要,对外贸易的发展影响国内产业结构的优化与调整。基于河北省1994-2017年数据,建立对数回归模型,借鉴广义的对外贸易结构来度量河北省的对外贸易结构,从商品结构、方式结构、区域结构出发,全方位、多角度度量对外贸易结构对产业结构升级的影响。结果发现:对外贸易商品结构、方式结构、区域结构对产业结构的优化调整有显著影响,但是影响程度不同,其中,初级产品出口对产业结构升级有负面影响,没有促进产业结构升级;加工贸易出口对产业结构升级有负面影响,但是影响不显著;对亚洲的出口以及从其他大洲的进口对产业结构升级起到促进作用。基于结果分析对河北省对外贸易发展提出对策建议,为河北省对外贸易发展提供一定的理论指导。

Under the new normal of China's economy,it is equally important to stimulate both domestic demand and foreign demand.Meanwhile,the development of foreign trade affects the optimization and adjustment of domestic industrial structure.Based on the data of Hebei Province from 1994 to 2017 and by reference to the broad structure of foreign trade,the logarithmic regression model is established to measure the influence of the foreign trade structure of Hebei Province on the upgrading of industrial structure from the aspects of commodity structure,mode structure and regional structure.The results show that the commodity structure,mode structure and regional structure of foreign trade have significant influence on the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure with different degrees.Among them,the export of primary products has a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure and does not promote the upgrading of industrial structure.Processing trade export has a negative influence on industrial structure upgrading,yet the influence is not significant;Exports to Asia and imports from other continents contribute to the upgrading of the industrial structure.Based on the analysis of the results,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the development of foreign trade in Hebei Province,which provides some theoretical reference.