我国肉鹅市场价格波动分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of Price Fluctuation of Meat Goose Market in China

本文基于2014年1月—2020年2月中国肉鹅市场价格月度数据,运用季节性乘法Holt-Winters模型剖析了肉鹅价格的内在波动特征,并利用其波动趋势特点对未来一年的肉鹅市场价格做出短期预测。结果表明:我国肉鹅市场价格总体呈现曲折上升态势。从长期趋势来看,肉鹅市场价格在2017年出现明显拐点之后,开始大幅上升,并存在明显的季节性波动。未来一年预测值表明肉鹅价格整体会有一定程度下降,上升速度放缓,但随着疫情得到基本控制,我国肉鹅产业将逐步恢复至正常轨道,市场行情也将逐步回暖。

Based on the monthly price data of live goose market in China from January 2014 to February 2020,the seasonal multiplication Holt-Winters model was used to analyze the inherent fluctuation characteristics of live goose prices.Furthermore,a short-term price prediction for the coming year was done via these fluctuation trend characteristics.The results show that the market price of meat geese has generally shown a tortuous upward trend.In 2017,prices of living goose began to rise sharply after an obvious inflection point,showing obvious seasonal fluctuation characteristics.The predicted prices of the coming year will decline to a certain extent,and then increase slowly.As the COVID-19 cases are basically controlled,work resumption is taking place across China and a series of measures were taken to stimulate consumer consumption like consumption coupon issued by the government.These measures will gradually drive China’s meat goose industry back to normal,and market conditions will gradually pick up.