制度摩擦何以影响中国预算变迁?——基于1992—2019年的中国预算变迁数据的实证研究

How Does Institutional Friction Influence the Changes inChina's Budget?-Evidence from 1992-2019

【问题】间断-均衡预算理论通过美国、欧洲等不同国家的联邦、州与地方政府的预算变迁得到检验,该理论对于中国政策过程和预算过程的适用性如何?制度摩擦假设是否能解释预算变迁的间断性?政治周期是否为替代性假设?【方法】论文通过利用1992—2019年的全国、中央和地方预决算数据,利用正态性检验、L-K值等计算方法实证分析了中国预决算变迁的间断性情况。除此之外,论文还采用了固定效应模型分析了政治周期对预算变迁间断性的影响。【发现】研究发现中国预算变迁遵循间断性逻辑,制度摩擦也是导致间断性差异的重要变量,其中所得税收入分享改革作为制度摩擦的代理变量对中央政府预算间断性的影响更为显著。为了检验间断性的政治周期替代性假设,通过比较党代会周期和中央领导人更替周期的间断性,发现政治周期对预算变迁并没有太明显的影响。【贡献】中国的预算变迁为间断-均衡预算理论提供了新的经验证据,这进一步证明了“一般间断假设”和“公共预算的一般经验法则”,从而为理论的外部有效性提供了更多证据。而制度摩擦和政治周期假设的检验为中国预算变迁的间断性提供了更明确的解释。

Motivation:Punctuated-equilibrium budget theory has been tested by the budget changes of federal,state,and local governments in the United States and different countries in Europe.Is this theory applicable to China's policy and budget processes?Can the institutional friction hypothesis explain the punctuation of budget changes?Is political cycle an alternative hypothesis?Methodology:Using national,central,and local fiscal data from 1992 to 2019,this paper analyzes the punctuation of China's budget and final accounts by implementing normal test,L-K value,and other calculation methods.In addition,this paper also analyzes the impact of political cycle on the punctuation of budget changes through a fixed effect model.Findings:China's budget changes followed the logic of punctuated-equilibrium budget theory.Institutional friction was one of the main reasons for punctuations in the central government budget process.To test the alternative hypothesis,we analyzed the punctuations during the cycles of National Congresses of the CPC and the cycles of central leadership replacement.We found these political cycles had no obvious impact on budget changes.Contribution:China's budget changes provide new empirical evidence for punctuated equilibrium budget theory.This further proves the“general punctuation hypothesis”and the“general empirical rule of public budgeting”,thus providing furtherevidence for the external validity of the theory.The tests of the institutional friction and the political cycle hypotheses provide a clearer explanation for the punctuation of China's budget changes.