基于多时期DID的高速铁路对城市人口流动的影响研究

Research on the Impact of High-speed Railway on Urban Population Mobility Based on Multiple Periods DID

高速铁路的迅速发展缩短了时空距离,加速了人口、资源等经济要素的流动。基于2004—2016年我国284个地级及以上城市的数据,运用多时期DID估计方法,实证检验我国高速铁路对城市人口流动的影响。研究结果表明:①总体上高速铁路对我国城市人口流动的影响呈现显著正向效应,表现为人口集聚作用;高速铁路成网的人口集聚作用相较于高速铁路开通更强。②不同人口规模下高速铁路对我国城市人口流动的影响存在显著的异质性。③高速铁路开通与成网对同一人口规模下城市的影响效果存在差异。

The rapid development of high-speed railway has shortened the distance between time and space and accelerated the flow of population,resources and other economic factors.Based on the data of 284 cities at the prefecture level or above In China from 2004 to 2016,this paper uses the multiple periods DID(Difference In Difference)estimation method to empirically test the impact of China's high-speed railway on urban population mobility.The research results show that:(1)On the whole,high-speed railway has a significant positive effect on urban population mobility in China,which is manifested as population agglomeration;The population agglomeration effect of high-speed railway network is stronger than that of high-speed railway opening;(2)The influence of high-speed railway on urban population mobility in China is remarkably heterogeneous under different population scale;(3)There are differences in the impact effects of high-speed railway opening and network completion on cities with the same population size.