新冠疫情下全球价值链结构调整特征与未来挑战

Characteristics of Structural Adjustment to Global Value Chain and Future Challenges under the Background of COVID-19 Pandemic

新冠疫情引发的全球公共卫生安全危机,已经触发全球价值链的实质性结构调整,导致全球价值链呈现出整体规模萎缩、本土化、区域化加强、全球价值链数字化转型加速和世界主要大国对中国实施价值链拆解五大典型特征。疫情引发的全球价值链调整的逻辑和方向是美国维护全球"经济霸权"的战略诉求,以及全球在"经济自主"思维下强化经济安全与追求经济权力的方向性转变,与之对应的是未来全球价值链中"经济成本和效率优先"影响的下降。由于叠加了全球价值链数字化在疫情期间的加速推进,全球价值链调整的结果不仅给全球经济治理带来新问题,同时还可能损害和瓦解全球化过程中既有经济联系的基础,进而引发全球经济不稳定背景下的高强度政治博弈与对抗。

The global public health security crisis triggered by COVID-19 pandemic has led to substantial structural adjustments to global value chains,featured by overall shrinking,increased localization and regionalization,acceleration of digital transformation and value chain breakdown launched by major powers against China. The adjustment to global value chains in the wake of the pandemic meets the strategic demand of the United States to maintain global "economic hegemony",and reflects the strategic change towards strengthening economic security and pursuing economic power under the mindset of global "economic autonomy",which corresponds to the declining impact of "economic cost and efficiency first"on the future global value chains. Due to the acceleration of global value chain digitization during the pandemic,the adjustment to global value chains not only causes new problems to global economic governance,but also may damage and disintegrate the foundation of existing economic connections amid the globalization,which in turn will trigger intensive political gaming and confrontation under the background of economic instability.