2020年美国大选:决胜因素、选举特点与政治困局

2020 U. S. General Election:Decisive Factors,Election Features and Political Dilemma

在疫情背景下,2020年美国大选中的选举政治因素出现更加复杂的变化,影响大选胜负的选举政治因素更加多样化。本文认为,良好的"当选性"、合理的竞选策略、疫情的影响以及种族矛盾激化这四大因素共同促成拜登获得本次大选的胜利。尽管疫情使影响大选的选举政治因素更加复杂多样,但本次大选继续体现出在2016年总统大选与2018年中期选举中就已经非常明显的选举政治特点,包括两党极化加剧、选民固化明显和郊区选民向民主党倾斜三方面。基于本次大选反映出的选举政治因素与政治变化特点,拜登政府在未来四年将面临三大难以同时实现的政治困境,即弥合党内分歧、缓和两党极化与稳住民主党脆弱选民联盟。本次大选结束以后,美国政治与美国社会将处于价值更加对立、选民更加分裂与党争更加激烈的新常态。

Under the background of COVID-19 pandemic,the political factors affecting the 2020 U. S. general election have undergone more complex changes and also become more diverse. This article believes that the positive "electability",reasonable tactics,the impact of the pandemic,and the intensification of racial conflicts have contributed to Biden’s victory in this election. Although the pandemic has made the political factors more complex and diverse,this election continues to reflect the features of electoral politics that were obvious in the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 midterm election,including increased polarization between the two parties,obvious orientation of voters and suburban voters tending to vote in favor of the Democratic Party. In view of the political factors and features of political changes reflected by this general election,the Biden administration will have to face three political dilemmas that are difficult to handle at the same time in the next four years,namely bridging the differences within the party,easing the polarization of the two parties,and stabilizing the fragile voter alliance of the Democratic Party. After the end of this election,American politics and American society will enter a new normal state featured by more opposing values,more divided voters,and more intense struggle between the two parties.