基于三维四面体模型的西藏资源环境承载力综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of resource and environment carrying capacity of Tibet based on a three-dimensional tetrahedron model

资源环境承载力定量评价与综合计量是资源环境承载力研究由分类走向综合的关键技术环节。本文从系统角度出发,提出了"人居环境适宜性分区——资源承载力限制性分类——社会经济发展适应性分等——资源环境承载力警示性分级"的资源环境承载力综合评价的研究思路与技术路线,构建了具有平衡态意义的资源环境承载力综合评价的三维四面体模型,对区域资源环境承载力监测预警机制的建立具有清晰的政策指导意义。基于上述模型方法,以公里格网为基础,以分县为基本单元,开展了西藏自治区的资源环境承载力综合评价。研究表明,西藏3/4左右土地、4/5以上人口所在的县域资源环境综合承载力处于盈余或平衡状态,资源环境综合承载状态良好;人居环境以不适宜和临界适宜为主要特征,社会经济发展水平普遍滞后,人居环境自然适宜性和社会经济发展水平在较大程度上限制了西藏资源环境承载力的发挥及其提升。

Quantitative evaluation and comprehensive measurement of resource and environmental carrying capacity are the technical keys in the research of resource and environmental carrying capacity from classification to synthesis. From a system perspective,this paper proposes a three-dimensional tetrahedron model with physical meaning to comprehensively evaluate resource and environmental carrying capacity, which is conducted on the structure of "human settlement environment suitability classification-resource and environmental carrying capacity restrictive classification-socioeconomic development adaptability classification-resource and environmental carrying capacity warning classification". Its results have clear policy guidance significance for the establishment of the dynamic-monitoring and early-warning mechanism for regional resource and environmental carrying capacity. Based on the above methods, this research, taking Tibet Autonomous Region as an example and using 1-km gridded data, quantitatively assessed regional resource and environmental carrying capacity at county level. The results show that there were about 3/4 areas in good condition of resources and environmental carrying status(surplus or balanced state), with more than 4/5 of population;the human settlement environment in Tibet was mainly characterized by unsuitability and critical suitability, while the socioeconomic development level there generally lagged behind. Within this context, we suggest that human settlement environment suitability and socioeconomic development level have greatly restricted the performance and improvement of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Tibet.