人口老龄化、创新驱动与产业结构转型升级——基于空间杜宾模型的研究

Population Aging,Innovation Driven and Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading:Based on Spatial Durbin Model

人口老龄化趋势不可逆转,产业结构转型升级势在必行,创新驱动成为拉动经济转型成功的新引擎,其背后是产业结构适应老龄化趋势的缩影。通过构建创新驱动多维指标体系并引入空间杜宾模型,探讨产业结构升级溢出效应的影响因素,实证检验人口老龄化与创新驱动对产业结构转型升级的影响。研究发现,人口老龄化、创新驱动均对促进本地区产业结构转型升级有着显著作用;而人口老龄化与创新驱动的交互作用却对本地区产业结构转型升级具有阻碍作用,产业升级溢出效应不明显;社会联系下的地区经济增长和政府干预行为具有产业升级溢出效应。

The trend of population aging is irreversible,and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is imperative.Innovation driven has become a new engine to promote the success of economic transformation,behind which is the epitome of industrial structure adapting to the trend of aging.Through building a multi-dimensional index system of innovation driven and introducing the spatial Durbin model,the paper explores the influencing factors of spillover effect of industrial structure upgrading,and empirically tests the impact of population aging and innovation driven on industrial structure transformation and upgrading.The results show that population aging and innovation driven have significant effect on promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the region;however,the interaction between population aging and innovation driven hinders the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,and the spillover effect of industrial upgrading is not obvious;the regional economic growth and government intervention under social connection have significant spillover effect of industrial upgrading.