基于行为决策理论的宅基地退出影响因素分析——甘肃省654户调查数据的实证

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Rural Homestead Withdrawal Based on Behavioral Decision-making Theory—Empirical Research on Survey Data of 654 Households in Gansu Province

文章根据甘肃省654户农户问卷调查数据,基于行为决策理论,运用Probit模型和结构方程模型揭示了农户宅基地退出的影响因素。研究结果表明:农户的文化程度差异、是否在外非农务工、是否有城镇户口等自身特征的不同,会使他们对退出宅基地的态度产生差异;农户的从众示范效应和退出宅基地后不确定性风险对农户宅基地退出意愿影响最大,是影响农户退出宅基地意愿的主导因素;宅基地的禀赋效应也显著影响农户宅基地退出。相关政策建议:(1)从社保、就业和宅基地退出后生活支出三个方面减少农户宅基地退出后的不确定性风险,从而消除其宅基地退出后顾之忧;(2)利用农户的从众示范效应分批退出;(3)采取多样化的退出补偿方式。

Based on the questionnaire survey data of 654 households in Gansu Province,and the behavioral decision-making theory,the paper uses Probit model and structural equation model to indicate the influencing factors of farmer’s homestead withdrawal.The results show that:farmers have different attitudes towards the rural homestead withdrawal by different characteristics,such as their education levels,whether they work outside as non-agricultural employment,and whether they are hukou-holder;the demonstration effect of conformity of the farmer and the uncertain risk after withdrawal from the rural homestead have the strongest influence on the farmers'willingness to quit the rural homestead,which are the dominant factors influencing the farmers'willingness to quit the rural homestead;also,the endowment effect of rural homestead has a significant influence on the farmer's rural homestead withdrawal.Finally,this paper proposes relevant policy suggestions as follows:(1)reducing the uncertain risk of the farmer's rural homestead withdrawal from the three aspects of social security,employment and the living expenses after the withdrawal of rural homestead,so as to eliminate the their worries after the rural homestead withdrawal;(2)withdrawing in batches by using the demonstration effect of conformity of the farmers;(3)adopting diversified withdrawal compensation methods.