海河流域径流变异特征及其影响因素研究

Characteristics of runoff variations and their influencing factor in Haihe River Basin

径流变异是导致流域水资源可利用量变化和生态环境恶化的重要原因。将分离变量方法与Mann-Kendall法相结合对海河流域1956-2016年不同阶段径流变异特征进行分析,定量解析了导致径流变异的各因素贡献。研究结果表明:1956-2000年期间海河流域气候变化的降水量是径流变异的主导因子,贡献率占80.8%;2001-2016年期间径流变异主导因子由降水量转变为人类活动,导致了土地利用的变化,使气候因子的贡献率下降至29.0%,下垫面的贡献率上升至71.0%。从空间分布上,海河北系、海河南系、徒骇马颊河流域的径流变异受降水量影响十分剧烈,其贡献率均超过85%;相对其他流域径流变异,滦河水系受下垫面的变化影响相对较大,其贡献率为30.2%。海河流域径流变异特征及影响研究对于流域生态环境保护与水资源可持续利用具有重要指导意义。

Runoff variations contribute greatly to the scarcity of available water resources and the deterioration of eco-environment system.In this paper,we analyzed the characteristics of runoff variations in Haihe River Basin during different periods using the combination of variable separation and Mann-Kendall test method,and discussed the contribution of each influencing factor quantitatively.The results indicate that the precipitation was the dominant factor of runoff variations in Haihe River Basin from 1956 to 2000,with the contribution rate of 80.8%.However,the dominant factor transformed from precipitation to land use change caused by human activities from 2001 to 2016.The contribution rate of climate change decreased to 29.0%,and that of the underlying surface rose to 71.0%.From the spatial distribution pattern,it showed that precipitation significantly affected the runoff variations of north Haihe River sub-basin,south Haihe River sub-basin and Tuhai-Majia River sub-basin,and the individual contribution rate all exceeded 85%.Compared with other sub-basins,Luan River sub-basin was affected more severely by the underlying surface,with the contribution rate of 30.2%.The study of the runoff variations and their influences can provide valuable guidance for the protection of eco-environment and the sustainable utilization of water resources in this area.