流域水资源可持续脆弱性回顾评价及敏感度分析

Retrospective vulnerability evaluation and sensitivity analysis of watershed water resources sustainability

流域水资源可持续脆弱性回顾评价不仅能够识别影响流域水资源可持续的潜在风险要素,评估系统的可持续发展能力,而且能够回看水资源政策实施效果,从而为政府完善现有政策提供依据。采用时间序列分析方法,基于欧几里德空间原理,构建了流域水资源可持续脆弱性n维空间评价模型;基于状态空间模型,分析了总脆弱度对资源、环境、社会经济3个维度在时间序列上的敏感度;最后将该模型用于湘江流域以验证其可行性。结果表明:湘江流域水资源系统总脆弱度在2007-2018年间总体呈下降趋势;流域水资源系统总脆弱度对环境维度高度敏感,对资源维度中度敏感,对社会经济维度低度敏感;脆弱性评价结果表明,湘江流域已实施的水资源管理政策成效显著。

With the retrospective vulnerability evaluation of watershed water resources sustainability,not only can the potential risks impacting watershed sustainability be identified,but also the watershed sustainability capacity and implementation effect of water resources policies can be evaluated,which would provide some guidance for the government to improve and optimize the existing policies.A n-dimensional space evaluation model for watershed water resources sustainable vulnerability was established using time series analysis method,based on Euclidean space theorem.Furthermore,the state space model was used to analyze the sensitivity of total vulnerability to the dimensions of resources,environment and socio-economy in time series.Finally,Xiangjiang Watershed was adopted as a case study to verify this model.Results show that the total vulnerability of water resources in this watershed showed an overall decreasing trend from 2007 to 2018,it was highly sensitive to the dimension of environment,moderately sensitive to the dimension of resources and slightly sensitive to the dimension of socio-economy.The conclusions of vulnerability evaluation show that the water resources management policies of Xiangjiang Watershed have achieved remarkable effects.