产业结构与土地的宏观传导机制:一个中美之间的比较

Industrial Structure and the Macroeconomic Transmission of Land:A Comparsion between China and the U.S.

中国的房地产繁荣对非房地产部门产生"挤出效应",而美国房地产繁荣则对非房地产部门产生"挤入效应",两者形成鲜明对比。本文认为,上述差异可以用两国产业结构的差异来解释。如果一国第三产业占比较高,企业使用土地以商服用地为主,其和住宅用地价格协同性较高,使得房地产部门和非房地产部门一同扩张;反之,若第二产业占比较高,则工业用地也是生产经营的要素,这类土地和住宅用地价格协同性较低,导致非房地产部门没有产生抵押融资机制,反而会被房地产部门"挤出"。本文建立了一个两部门金融摩擦DSGE模型,分别匹配中美两国的数据进行了贝叶斯估计,在同一理论框架下解释了中美两国的上述特征事实及宏观传导机制。

China’s real estate boom has a"crowding-out effect"on the non-real estate sector.By contrast,in the U.S.,real estate boom has a"crowding-in effect"on the non-real estate sector.This difference between the two countries could be explained by the difference in their industrial structures.If the tertiary industry accounts for a relatively high proportion,then the land used by the firms is mainly commercial land,whose price is highly correlated with residential land price,resulting in the expansion of both real estate and non-real estate sector.Otherwise,If the secondary industry accounts for a relatively high proportion,then the industrial land is the key factor in production.The price of this type of land is much less synergistic with residential land price.As a result,collateral effect does not emerge in the non-real estate sector.Instead,it will be crowded out by the real estate sector through several other channels.In this paper,we establish a two-sector DSGE model with financial friction and match it with both Chinese and U.S.data for Bayesian estimation.We find that the stylized facts and transmission mechanisms of the two countries can be explained under the same theoretical framework.