地方融资平台市场化转型与信用风险的联动机制研究——基于双重差分法

Research on the Linkage Mechanism between the Market-Oriented Transformation of Local Financing Platforms and Credit Risks:Based on the Double Difference Method

地方融资平台剥离政府融资职能是有效治理地方政府隐性债务的重要举措,然而,当前地方政府融资平台转型却面临诸多挑战和困境。文章综合运用CRICIT赋值法、灰色欧几里德关联及改进的TOPSIS相结合的方法测算融资平台债务风险,进而采用双重差分法检验融资平台市场化转型对融资平台信用风险的影响。研究结论是:2014—2018年我国投融资平台债务风险呈现先缓慢下降后逐年上升的趋势;2018年国家、省级、地市级及县级融资平台债务风险均处于“严重风险”下限;当前融资平台市场化转型条件并不成熟,平台转型面临潜在的体制机制风险、市场风险、信用风险等次生风险。文章进一步构建了“时间换空间”和“保留、兼并、清理”以及“时空并举”等三种差异化融资平台治理方案。

Existing studies generally believe that promoting the financing platform to strip the government financing function and accelerating the market-oriented transformation effectively is an important measure to prevent the financing platform from evolving into a real carrier of the hidden debt of local governments.First of all,the paper calculates the debt risk of the financing platform by comprehensively using the method of assigning the word“CRICIT”,the method of gray Euclidean correlation and the improved TOPSIS.It is found that from 2014 to 2018,debt risks of Investment and financing platforms in China shows a trend of slow decline and then rising year by year.In addition,the debt risks of national,provincial,prefecture-level and county-level financing platforms are serious in 2018.On this basis,the paper uses the double difference method(DID)to test the effect of the marketization transformation of financing platforms on the credit risk of financing platforms.It is found that the current conditions for the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms are not mature,and that the platform transformation is faced with potential secondary risks such as institutional risks,market risks and credit risks.From the perspective of industry differences,the wholesale and retail industry,water conservancy and environment industry platform companies are faced with significant transformation risks.However,the manufacturing and accommodation catering industry are significantly lower than the average market level.In conclusion,this paper constructs three different financing platform governance schemes,namely,“time for space”,“retention,merger,liquidation”and“simultaneous development of time and space”.