“十四五”时期农村劳动力就业:形势展望、结构预测和对策思路

Employment of Rural Labor Force in the 14th Five-year Plan Period: Situation Outlook,Structure Forecast and Thought Countermeasure

"十四五"时期,世界处于百年未有之大变局深度演化期,我国农村劳动力就业形势更加复杂,困难和挑战前所未有。供给层面,农村劳动力的规模、结构和意愿显著变化。需求层面,全球化巨大的不确定性增加了就业红利减少的风险,城镇产业新旧动能转换可能导致摩擦性和结构性失业,农村就业承载力和就业空间也迎来调整。综合人口增长和城镇发展态势,预计"十四五"末,我国农村劳动人口总量达到2.59亿人,其中需要转移就业1.16亿~1.48亿人。虽然就业总体压力有所缓解,但要实现更充分更高质量就业,依然面临不少困难。"十四五"要着力解决好三大问题,一是延续出口部门在全球化中的就业红利,二是疏通立足国内大循环的城镇转移就业渠道,三是释放农业农村内部就地就近就业潜能。

During the period of "the 14 th five-year plan",the world is in a major change period of profound evolution which unprecedented in a century, and the employment situation of rural labor force in China has became more complicated, with unprecedented difficulties and challenges.On the supply side, the size, structure and willingness of rural labor force have changed significantly.On the demand side, the great uncertainty of globalization increases the risk of diminishing employment dividends, and the transformation of old and new driving forces in urban industries may lead to friction and structural unemployment, while employment capacity and space in rural areas are also seeing adjustment.Comprehensive population growth and urban development situation, it is estimated that China’s rural working population will be 259 million at the end of "the 14 th five-year plan" period, of which 116 million to 148 million need to be transferred to employment.Although total employment overall pressure has eased and decreased, there are still many difficulties to achieve fuller and higher quality employment.During the period of "the 14 th five-year plan",we should make great efforts to solve three major issues: first, continuing the employment dividend of the export sector in globalization;second, unblocking the channels for urban employment based on the domestic circulation;and third, releasing the potential for local employment in agriculture and rural areas.