中国与“一带一路”国家农产品价格关联性研究——兼论中美贸易摩擦的影响

Agricultural Price Connectedness between China and“One Belt and One Road”Countries and the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction

本文采用溢出网络方法及2010—2018年大豆、小麦、玉米月度价格数据,实证分析中国与"一带一路"沿线国家间农产品价格的多维关联特征,并着重探讨中美贸易战对该价格关联性的影响。结果显示:(1)总体而言,中国与沿线国家间的小麦、玉米价格存在较强关联性,大豆价格关联性较弱,且关联程度在全球供给冲击和A股股灾期间显著上升;(2)中国主要是沿线国家大豆和玉米价格净溢出的接受者,2016年6月由小麦价格净溢出的接受者转变为传递者;(3)中国与沿线国家间的农产品价格关联性存在地区差异,其中与黑海地区及巴基斯坦间的关联度较高;(4)中美贸易摩擦促使中国加大与"一带一路"国家的农业合作,从而增强了彼此间的农产品价格关联程度。

Based on monthly price data of soybean, corn and wheat from 2010 to 2018,this paper use the spillover network approach to empirically analyze the multi-connectedness feature of agricultural prices between China and "One Belt and One Road" countries, with focus on the impact of Sino-US trade war.The results show that:(1) generally, wheat and corn prices in China are strongly connected with those in "One Belt and One Road" countries, while the connection of soybean prices is relatively weak, and the degree of connectedness increases significantly in the periods of global supply shocks and China’s financial turmoil;(2) China mainly acts as the receiver of net spillovers of soybean and corn prices in "One Belt and One Road" countries, and changes from the receiver to the transmitter of net spillovers of wheat prices in June 2016;(3) the agricultural price linkages between China and "One Belt and One Road" countries exhibit regional differences, among which connections of China with the Black Sea area as well as Pakistan are relatively strong;(4) Sino-US trade friction impels China to enhance agricultural cooperation with "One Belt and One Road" countries, thus strengthening the agricultural price connectedness between each other.