胡焕庸线以东地区经济空间格局演变特征及影响机制分析

Analysis on the Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Mechanism ofEconomic Spatial Pattern in the Area East of Hu Huanyong Line

本文以胡焕庸线以东地区281个市域单元为研究对象,选取经济发展及相关的多项指标,运用标准差椭圆、探索性空间数据分析、半变异函数、空间面板数据模型,揭示2002—2017年胡焕庸线以东地区市域单元经济空间格局演变特征及其影响机制。结果表明:①胡焕庸线以东地区市域经济总体格局呈现“西南-东北”的空间分布格局,重心位于河南、安徽的交界地带且发生明显的南移迹象,表现出强集聚性;②胡焕庸线以东地区经济空间差异先扩大后缩小,经济空间差异主要体现在东南-西北方向;③胡焕庸线以东地区经济空间相关性显著为正,高高和低低集聚现象明显。高高集聚区分布在东部沿海三大经济区并伴有南移迹象,低低集聚区在中、西、北地区都有分布,且数量有所减少;④区域发展战略、市场化水平、教育水平、产业结构合理化共同影响着胡焕庸线以东地区的经济发展,且区域发展战略和市场化水平具有空间溢出效应。

This paper takes 281 city units in the east of the Hu Huanyong Line as the research object and selects economic development and multiple related indicators to reveal the evolutionary characteristics and influence mechanism of the economic spatial pattern of the city unit in the area east of the Hu Huanyong line from 2002 to 2007 by using standard deviation ellipses,exploratory spatial data analysis,semivariogram and spatial panel data models.The results are as follows.①The overall urban economic structure of the region east of the Hu Huanyong Line presents a spatial distribution pattern of“Southwest-Northeast”,with the center of gravity located at the junction of Henan and Anhui province,with obvious signs of southward shifting,showing strong agglomeration.②The economic spatial differences in the Hu Huanyong Line eastern region first expanded and then narrowed.The economic spatial differences are mainly reflected in the southeast-northwest direction.③The economic spatial correlation to the east of the Hu Huanyong Line is significantly positive,and the high-high and low-low agglomeration phenomena are obvious.High-high agglomeration areas are distributed in the three major economic zones along the eastern coast with signs of southward movement.Low-low agglomeration areas are distributed in the central,western and northern regions,and the number has decreased.④Regional development strategy,marketization level,education level and rationalization of the industrial structure together affect the economic development of the area east of the Hu Huanyong Line,and the regional development strategy and the level of marketization have spatial spillover effects.