国家能力、出口复杂度与经济增长波动--来自178个国家面板数据的经验证据

National Capacity,Export Sophistication and Economic Growth Volatility:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 178 Countries

作为生产产品所需要的不可交易的投入品集合,国家能力的增加不但有利于经济产出的增长,而且能够增强经济体系中供给和需求的稳定性,进而有利于降低经济产出的波动性;出口复杂度的高低可以反映一国能力的多少,因而出口复杂度的提高可以降低供给波动、需求波动和产出波动。对1998-2017年178个样本国家的分析发现:出口复杂度的提高对总体经济产出增长和制造业产出增长的波动均有显著抑制作用,但该抑制效应存在国别差异,对总体经济产出增长波动的抑制作用只在高收入和中等收入国家显著,而对制造业产出增长波动的抑制效应在低收入国家更大。进一步的中介效应检验表明,出口复杂度提高可以通过抑制供给波动和需求波动降低总体经济产出增长波动。应发挥中国特色社会主义制度优势以形成和强化独有的能力,深化市场经济体制改革以改善各种能力,推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化以提高能力组合效率,进而通过国家能力的系统化提升促进国内循环的高质量发展,提高出口复杂度,实现持续稳定的经济增长和国内循环与国际循环的相互促进。

As the non-tradable input product set demanded by product production,the increase of national capacity is not only conducive to economic output growth but also can enhance the stability of supply and demand in economic system,and furthermore,the increase of export sophistication can reduce the supply volatility.The degree of export sophistication can reflect the extent of a country’s capacity,as a result,the increase of export sophistication can reduce supply volatility,demand volatility and output volatility.Analysis of 178 sample countries from 1998 to 2017 finds that the increase of export sophistication has significantly inhibitory effect on the volatility of total economic output growth and manufacturing industry output growth,but the inhibitory effect is different in different countries,which is significant only in high-income and middle-income countries.The inhibition effect on the volatility of manufacturing industry output growth is bigger in low-income countries.Further intermediary effect tests show that the increased export complexity can reduce total economic output growth volatility by restraining supply volatility and demand volatility.We should use the institutional advantages of the socialism with Chinese characteristics to form and strengthen unique capacity,deepen market economy system reform to improve all kinds of capacities,push forward the modernization of national governance system and governance capacity to improve capacity combination efficiency,further improve national capacity systemization to boost the high quality development of domestic circulation,improve export sophistication and realize sustainable and stable economic growth and the interactive promotion between domestic and international circulation.