贸易多样化和技术创新:出口波动的稳定器--贸易壁垒减弱出口波动的机制与中国经验

Trade Diversification and Technical Innovation:Stabilizer of Export Volatility-The Mechanism for Trade Barrier Weakening Export Volatility and China’s Experience

尽管遭受贸易壁垒不利于出口增长,但可以倒逼企业出口产品和市场的多样化发展,并促使出口企业通过技术创新提升产品竞争力;出口多样化和技术进步均有利于出口稳定,因而贸易壁垒的强化对出口波动可能具有负向影响。采用1998-2018年与中国有贸易往来的国家和地区4分位行业(ISIC)数据,以涉华贸易救济案件数量作为贸易壁垒的代理变量,分析发现:涉华贸易救济案件数量的增加对中国产品出口波动具有负向影响,且该影响对制造业和下游行业更为显著;对华贸易壁垒增加可以显著降低中国对进口中国产品多样化程度高的国家和地区的出口波动,而在进口中国产品多样化程度低的国家和地区没有显著影响;对于出口市场多样化程度较低的产品,贸易壁垒增加会增强出口波动,而对于出口市场多样化程度较高的产品,贸易壁垒增加会减弱出口波动;相比研发强度较低的行业,贸易壁垒增加对研发强度较高行业产品出口波动的弱化效应更强。面对各种各样的贸易壁垒,应实施多样化高质量发展策略,提升出口贸易多样化水平,并通过技术创新提升出口产品质量,进而增强出口稳定性,提高出口竞争力。

Trade barrier is adverse to export growth but can boost diversification development of the products and market for export trade and can urge the export enterprises to improve products competence by technical innovation.Both trade diversification and technical progress are conducive to export stability,as a result,the intensification of trade barrier has negative influence on export volatility.Based on the trade remedy data,and the data of 4-digit industries(ISIC)of countries(regions)that have trade relations with China from 1998 to 2018,by taking the remedy case quantity in trade with China as the agency variables of trade barrier,this paper empirically tests the impact of trade barriers on China's export volatility.The results show that the increase of the remedy cases in the trade with China has negative impact on China’s export volatility,and this impact is more significant for manufacturing and downstream industries.The increase of trade barrier can significantly reduce the export volatility of China to the countries and regions with higher diversification degree for importing China’s products but the impact is not significant to the countries and regions with lower diversification degree for importing China’s products.The increase of trade barrier can intensify export volatility when the diversification degree of export products market is low,however,the increase of trade barrier can weaken export volatility when market diversification degree is high.Comparing with the industries with low intensity of research and development,the increase of trade barrier has more weakening effect on the export volatility for the industries with high intensity of research and development.Facing all kinds of trade barriers,we should implement diversified high-quality development strategy,make efforts to improve export trade diversification level,use technical innovation to promote export products quality,and further enhance export stability and improve export competence.