入境旅游的GDP贡献越大经济增长带动效应越强吗?--理论机制、国际经验与双循环发展启示

Whether Is the Bigger the GDP Contribution of Inbound Tourism,the Stronger Its Driving Effect on Economic Growth?:Theoretical Mechanism,International Experience and Double-circulation Development Enlightenment

随着经济社会的发展和开放,入境旅游成为国民经济的重要组成部分,并通过促进关联产业发展带动宏观经济增长。入境旅游对经济增长的带动作用具有时变性:一方面,入境旅游自身的发展质量及其同相关产业的关联性与经济发展水平相关,随着地区经济发展水平的提高,入境旅游的经济增长带动效应趋于增强;另一方面,入境旅游属于资源依赖型(出口)产业,随着其在国民经济中地位和比重的持续提高,可能面临“资源诅咒”困境,尤其是对经济增长带动效应更强的制造业的挤出不利于整体经济增长,进而使其经济增长带动效应趋于减弱。采用1995-2017年107个国家和地区的面板数据,以入境旅游专业化程度(国际旅游收入占GDP的比重)为门槛变量的门槛效应分析表明:随着收入水平的提高,入境旅游的经济增长带动效应逐渐增强;无论是高收入国家和地区,还是中等收入及低收入国家和地区,入境旅游对经济增长的带动效应均随着入境旅游专业化程度的提高而逐渐减弱。因此,应促进入境旅游业的高质量发展,推动形成国内国际双循环新发展格局:通过积极开发新型旅游资源、持续促进技术创新等路径有效提升入境旅游的经济增长带动效应;同时,要注意维护旅游业与其他产业之间的整体平衡关系,避免入境旅游过度发展对经济增长带来不利影响。

With the development and openness of economy and society,inbound tourism has become an important part of national economy and has driven macro-economic growth by promoting the related industrial development.The driving effect of inbound tourism on economic growth has time-varying effect,on the one hand,the development quality of inbound tourism itself and its association with the related industries are correlated with economic development level,with the improvement of regional economic development level,its driving effect on economic growth is stronger.On the other hand,inbound tourism belongs to resource-type dependent(export)industry,with its improving of the status and proportion in national economy,it faces resource curse difficulty,especially its crowding out effect on the manufacturing industries with stronger driving effect is not conducive to overall economic growth and further its driving effect on economic growth tends to weaken.Based on panel data from 107 countries and regions in the world from 1995 to 2017,the study takes the degree of inbound tourism specialization(the proportion of international tourism revenue to GDP)as the threshold variable and uses the threshold panel model to conduct an empirical test on the relationship between inbound tourism and economic growth.The study finds that,with the improving of income level,the driving effect of inbound tourism on economic growth is gradually increasing,whether in high income countries and regions or in middle income countries and regions or low income countries and regions,the driving effect of inbound tourism on economic growth overall gradually weakens with the promotion of the specialization degree of inbound tourism.Thus,we should use the high quality development of inbound tourism to push forward the formation of domestic and international double-circulation new development pattern,actively use the paths such as new-style tourism resources development,technological innovation and so on to effectively improve the driving effect of inbound tourism on economic growth,meanwhile,maintain the balanced relationship between tourism industry and other industries and avoid the unfavorable impact of excessive inbound tourism development on economic growth.