EPC联合体风险动态分担研究——基于ISM-随机合作博弈

Research on Dynamic Risk Sharing of EPC Consortium:Based on ISM-Random Cooperative Game

为了使EPC项目联合体成员风险分配更加合理,在识别EPC项目全过程风险的基础上,运用ISM法对总承包商风险进行层次划分,构建“四阶段”风险动态分担框架;在此基础上,针对共担风险,提出基于随机合作博弈的最优风险分担模型并进行求解,得到联合体成员的最优风险分担比例。以经济风险为例,应用此方法对其在联合体内部进行转移,实现风险的最优分配,使项目总效益提高,验证了风险动态分担模型的作用。

In order to make the risk allocation of EPC project consortium members more reasonable,this paper uses the ISM method to classify the identified general contracting risks,and then builds a“four-stage”risk dynamic sharing framework.On the basis,for the sharing risks,proposes the optimum risk sharing model based on ISM-random cooperative game and gains the optimal risk sharing ratio of consortium members.Takes the economic risks as an example,applies this method to transfer them within the consortium,brings about the optimal allocation of risks,improves the total project benefits,which verifies the role of this model.