我国国内国际双循环新发展格局的前景——以东亚价值链结构变动为视角

The Prospect of China's New Development Pattern of Internal and External Dual Circulation——From the Perspective of the Structural Changes of the East Asian Value Chain

由于中美贸易争端的影响,加之新冠肺炎疫情持续蔓延给全球经济带来巨大冲击,从东亚价值链的结构变动而言,在我国加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局过程中,外部不确定风险和制约因素会对国内循环与国际循环的相互促进产生巨大影响。中国双循环畅通运转与东亚价值链重构相互依赖,双循环新发展格局的构建需要高度重视与东亚价值链分工体系调整的协同联动,应在稳定现有全球价值链的基础上,吸引更多外商投资,推动价值链规模不断扩大;做好我国双循环新发展格局的对外宣传工作,增强国际在华投资的信心;通过主动引领东亚价值链进行有序调整和重构,推动东亚区域合作,使其成为稳定我国全球价值链的重要安全阀,保证我国国民经济循环畅通以及国内循环与国际循环的良性互动。

Due to the Sino-US trade disputes and the major shock brought by the continuous spread of the COVID-19 to the global economy,when China speeds up the creation of a new development pattern focusing on the internal circulation and having the internal and external circulation complement each other,the external uncertainties and constraints may have a huge impact in terms of the structural change of the East Asian value chain.The smooth operation of China’s dual circulation and the reconstruction of the East Asian value chain depend on each other.In creating the dual-circulation new development pattern,we need to attach great importance to coordinating the adjustment of the system for division of labor of the East Asian value chain;attract more foreign investment and expand the scale of the value chain on the basis of stabilizing the existing global value chain;do a good job in the foreign publicity work to increase the confidence of the foreign investors;and actively lead the orderly adjustment and reconstruction of the East Asian value chain,promote regional cooperation in East Asia,and make it an important safety valve to stabilize China’s role in the global value chain,so as to ensure the smooth circulation of China’s economy and the good interaction between internal and external circulation.