中国虚拟水贸易的再核算——基于进口非竞争型投入产出模型的分析

Reaccounting of China’s Virtual Water Trade:Based on Analysis of Non-competitive Input-Output Model of Import

本文基于进口非竞争型投入产出模型,系统核算了中国的虚拟水贸易,并同时研究了水资源使用对各部门价格的影响,实证结果发现:(1)从绿水、蓝水和灰水的合计值来看,中国虚拟水进口来源地中按进口量排序前三位依次是韩国、日本和德国,进口量前三位的部门依次是金属制品业、农业和建筑业;中国虚拟水出口目的地中按出口量排序前三位依次是美国、中国香港地区和日本,出口量前三位的部门依次是纺织业、电气和电子设备业、农业。(2)在所有部门中,绿水和蓝水的使用对农业部门价格的影响最大,而灰水的使用对废品废料行业价格的影响最大。因此为了缓解水资源供给压力,可以适当扩大农业等耗水较多部门的产品的进口量,并适当减少其出口量;另外,在确定各部门产品的价格时,还需要考虑水资源使用成本的影响。

Based on non-competitive input-output model of imports,this paper systematically calculates China’s virtual water trade,and also studies the impact of water use on the price of various sectors.The empirical study has results as follow.( 1) In terms of the total value of green water,blue water and gray water,the top three sources of China’s virtual water imports are South Korea,Japan and Germany,and the top three sectors of imports are metal production,agriculture and construction industries. In terms of export volume,the top three destinations of China’s virtual water are the United States,Hong Kong,and Japan.The top three sectors of exports are textiles,electrical and electronic equipment industries,and agriculture.( 2) In all sectors,the use of green water and blue water has the greatest impact on the price of the agricultural sector,while the use of grey water has the greatest impact on the price of the waste industry. Therefore,in order to alleviate the pressure on water supply,it is suggested to appropriately expand the import of products from sectors of great water consumption such as agriculture,and appropriately reduce their exports.In addition,the cost of water use should be considered when fixing the prices of products in various sectors.