两败俱伤:美中贸易关税战对经济和就业的冲击

Lose-lose consequence:Shock of Sino-US trade war on bilateral economy and labor market

本文综合利用投入产出技术和弹性分析法等方法从全球价值链视角量化模拟了美中贸易关税战对双方经济、就业和世界经济的冲击.结果显示,若美国单边对中国发起贸易战,中国的出口、国内增加值以及就业将遭受重大损失,与此同时,美国也会因为中间品贸易受阻而遭受损失.中美相互贸易战会造成“双输”结果,比较而言中国的受损程度大于美国.此外,中美贸易战会使得全球生产链部分断裂,冲击生产链上欧盟、日本和韩国等经济体,加大世界经济下行的风险.政策启示上,美国的贸易保护主义政策缺乏合理的经济基础,美中贸易战不符合双方经济利益,双方合作共赢才是最优选择.

Using elasticity approach and input-output technique,the shock of US-China trade tariff war on bilateral economic growth and labor market is analyzed from the perspective of global value chain.Our results show that China will suffer from huge losses of exports,domestic value added and employment if US unilaterally raises tariffs sharply.Not only will China suffer losses,but US will suffer losses as well,since China’s intermediate imports from US will decline dramatically.In the case of bilateral trade war,China will suffer more losses than US since China’s degree of dependence on foreign trade is much higher.What’s worse,Sino-US trade war will break up parts of global production chains,so that all the countries on the chains will suffer losses and the risks of global downturn will increase.The results suggest that American trade protectionism is harmful for bilateral economic development,and Sino-US trade war will bring lose-lose consequences.Continuing opening-up and advancing win-win cooperation is the optimal strategy.