前海深港现代服务业合作区的保险增长效应——基于面板数据的反事实分析

Does the Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone Promote the Development of the Insurance Industry?--Counterfactual Analysis Based on Panel Data

基于中国内地31个省、直辖市、自治区和5个沿海计划单列市2009—2018年季度保费面板数据,用回归控制模型构造了前海深港现代服务业合作区设立影响深圳市保费增长的“反事实”,测度了前海深港现代服务业合作区设立对深圳保费的增长效应。反事实分析表明,前海深港现代服务业合作区的设立显著拉动了意外险保费、健康险保费的增长,抑制了寿险保费的增长,对财险保费的增长则几乎没有影响。金融开放试点扩大了短期金融需求的波动,加速了长期金融需求向境外的流动。在新一轮金融开放中,应优先开放短期金融产品,有序开放长期金融产品。适时监控金融市场的波动,降低金融产品的期限错配,预防金融机构过度利用短期负债产品进行流动性管理。

Based on the quarterly premium panel data of 36 provinces,autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the Central Government,and 5 coastal cities under separate state planning in China's Mainland from 2009 to 2018,the regression control method developed by Hsiao et al.is employed to construct the counterfactuals to capture the treatment effect of the erection of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone in Qianhai concerning the growth of insurance premiums of insurance industry in Shenzhen.The regression control method measures the policy effect of the establishment of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone in Qianhai on the growth rate of insurance premiums.The findings show that the setting-up of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone in Qianhai has significantly increased the premium growth rate of casualty insurance and health insurance,has lowered the growth rate of life insurance premiums,and has negligible impact on the growth rate of property insurance premiums.The pilot financial liberalization has expanded the fluctuation of short-term financial demand and accelerated the flow of long-term financial demand overseas.In the new round of financial liberalization,our country should give priority to opening short-term financial products and orderly opening long-term financial products,timely monitor the fluctuation of financial market,reduce the maturity mismatch of financial products,and prevent financial institutions from making excessive use of short-term debt products for liquidity management.