我国开发性金融部门绿色投资价值的气候影响和风险研究

为应对气候变化,我国开发性金融部门探索绿色投资倒逼其低碳转型之路,相应的气候变化对其绿色投资的影响和风险值得深入研究。运用气候压力测试模型、WITCH模型和气候VaR对我国开发性金融机构绿色投资的气候冲击影响、气候风险进行实证研究。研究发现,极端气候冲击会对我国的开发性金融机构的投资价值及其投资表现产生负面影响;我国开发性金融机构绿色债券的票面利率受气候变化影响程度各异,国家开发银行随着气温的上升而增加,中国农业发展银行随着气温的下降而减少;我国开发性金融机构绿色投资气候风险各异,中国农业发展银行绿色投资的气候风险相对较大。研究成果为我国开发性金融部门应对气候变化的低碳转型和绿色投资的风险管理提供决策参考。

In order to deal with climate change,China’s development financial sector is exploring the way of lowcarbon transformation driven by green investment.The corresponding impact and risk of climate change on its green investment is worthy of in-depth study.In this paper,climate stress test model,WITCH model and Climate Var are used to study the climate impact and climate risk of green investment in China’s development financial institutions.The results show that the extreme climate impact will have a negative influence on the investment value and investment performance of China’s development financial institutions.The coupon rate of green bonds of China’s development financial institutions is affected by climate change in different degrees,and the China Development Bank increases with the rise of temperature,while the agricultural development Bank of China decreases with the decrease of temperature.The climate risk of green investment is different,and the climate risk of green investment of Agricultural Development Bank of China is relatively higher.This study provides decision-making reference for China’s development financial sector to cope with the low-carbon transformation of climate change and green investment risk management.