林果种植对农民收入的影响研究——基于新疆县级面板和微观农户调查的实证

Effects of fruit farming on households′income:Empirical evidence from county panel and household survey data

文中试图实证检验新疆林果种植对农户收入的影响。在县级层面,基于新疆68个县5年面板数据,运用固定效应模型分析林果种植对农户净收入的影响;在农户微观层面,基于新疆六地州507户农户调查数据,运用Tobit模型分析农户参与林果种植对其收入结构(工资性收入、农业生产经营性收入和总收入)的影响。结果表明:(1)县级层面林果业发展对农户净收入有显著正向影响;(2)微观层面农户参与林果套种对其农业生产经营性收入有显著正向影响,而对工资性收入影响不显著。上述结果表明农户参与林果种植有利于其农业生产经营性收入和总收入的增加,但对于家庭工资性收入影响甚微。基于此提出政府在推行林果种植与脱贫攻坚时,应加强林果种植科技宣传与培训,重视林果业生态与经济效应,发展林果专业合作社为零散种植户提供管理与销售服务,为剩余劳动力提供非农就业渠道等政策建议。

The effect of fruit planting on farmers′income(including net income,farming income,and wage income)in rural Xinjiang was analyzed from both the county and the micro household levels.The county level analysis was conducted by using the fixed-effect model based on a five-year panel data from 68 counties in Xinjiang.The micro household level analysis was conducted by using Tobit model based on a filed survey data from 507 households in six prefectures.The results show that:(1)The county level analysis showed that fruit farming has significantly positive effect on households′net income.(2)The micro household level analysis demonstrated that households′participation in intercropping has significant positive impact on their farming income.However,there is no significant effect on wage income.The above findings indicated that fruit planting is useful to increase both farmers′farming income and gross income,but is little useful to increase farmers′wage income.Therefore,from the policy implication perspective,more attentions should be paid to improving fruit planting,strengthening the propaganda and training,developing professional fruit cooperatives,providing management and sales services for scattered growers,and providing non-agricultural employment channels for the surplus labor force.