基本养老保险对居民生育意愿的影响研究

Study on the influence of basic endowment insurance on residents' fertility wills

论文从生育意愿的两个维度:生育意愿数量、生育意愿性别,结合我国的实际情况分析基本养老保险对居民生育意愿的影响。研究发现:养老保险不仅降低了我国居民选择生育的概率,同时还弱化了我国居民多生育子女的意愿,降低了居民生育子女的数量,且其作用效果存在性别差异。此外,为了验证上述研究结果的稳健性,论文从城乡以及不同收入群体来检验养老保险对生育意愿的影响,发现参加养老保险的居民选择生育的概率和数量更低;在城乡之间得出的结论无显著差别,对于收入而言,年收入越低的居民越倾向于生育更多的孩子。

In this paper, from the two dimensions of fertility intention: the number of fertility intention and the gender of fertility intention, combined with the actual situation of our country, to analyze the impact of basic endowment insurance on residents’ fertility intention.The results show that endowment insurance not only reduces the probability of Chinese residents choosing to have children, but also weakens the willingness of Chinese residents to have more children and reduces the number of children, and its effect is different between the sexes.In addition, in order to verify the robustness of the above research results, this paper examines the impact of endowment insurance on fertility intention from urban and rural areas and different income groups, and finds that the probability and number of residents who participate in endowment insurance choose to have children are lower.There was no significant difference between urban and rural areas, with residents with lower incomes being more likely to have more children.