安徽省新旧动能转换水平测度与提升研究

Study on the Measurement and Promotion of Driving Force Conversion in Anhui Province

基于2013—2018年安徽省市级层面数据,从创新水平、经济成效、经济活力三维度构建评价指标体系,测度安徽省新旧动能转换水平并实证探究影响因素。安徽省新旧动能转换水平整体上提升,过程中有波动;皖南地区转换水平相对高于皖北和皖中,合肥、芜湖、马鞍山、铜陵、黄山、蚌埠、宣城、滁州等市转换水平相对较高。安徽省新旧动能转换存在惯性效应,产业结构合理化和研发投入是提升新旧动能转换水平的主要动力,产业结构服务化不利于当前阶段的新旧动能转换水平提升,适度的政府财政支出有助于新旧动能转换,城市化与人力资本水平对新旧动能转换影响有不显著负效应,可能原因在于城市化过程不协调和人力资本与产业结构不匹配。需要从合理引导产业结构升级、促进产业链与创新链协同融合、立足产业链打造人才链、稳健推进城市化等方面提升安徽省新旧动能转换水平。

Based on the municipal level data of Anhui Province from 2013 to 2018,this paper constructs a three-dimensional evaluation index system including innovation level,economic effect and economic vitality,measures the level of the driving force conversion,and empirically explores the influencing factors.The conversion level in Anhui Province has improved on the whole,but fluctuated in the process.The conversion level in southern Anhui is higher than that in northern and central.The conversion level of some cities like Hefei,Wuhu,Ma'anshan,Tongling,Huangshan,Bengbu,Xuancheng,Chuzhou are relatively high.There exists inertia effect in the driving force conversion.The rationalization of industrial structure and investment in R&D are the main driving forces to improve the conversion level,and the service-oriented industrial structure is not conducive to the upgrading of the conversion level at the current stage.Moderate government fiscal expenditure helps to change the old driving force into the new.The urbanization and human capital level have no significant negative effect on the conversion of new and old driving force,which may be due to the uncoordinated process of urbanization and the mismatch between human capital and industrial structure.It is necessary to reasonably guide the upgrading of industrial structure,promote the integration of the industrial chain and the innovation chain,build the talent chain based on the industrial chain,and steadily promote urbanization.