基于系统动力学模型的2019冠状病毒病早期防控机制研究

Exploring early prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis

目的:探讨各国2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)暴发早期防控的效果,为传染病疫情暴发早期的防控提供对策。方法:以世界卫生组织公开的中国、美国、英国、澳大利亚、塞尔维亚和意大利COVID-19疫情暴发早期数据为样本,建立广义易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)模型,对其参数进行最优化求解。然后,根据基本传染数表达式中的参数,利用系统动力学模型中的敏感性分析,定量分析各国保护率、感染率和平均检疫时间对疫情暴发早期的影响。最后,根据分析结果提出COVID-19暴发早期的防控对策。结果:广义SEIR模型对六国COVID-19暴发早期的预测和评估具有较好的拟合性,实际数据与拟合数据高度重合。COVID-19扩散主要受保护率、感染率和平均检疫时间影响:从保护率来看,前10 d的保护率提高最为重要,保护率越大,确诊人数越少;从感染率来看,前5 d的感染率最为关键,感染率越小,确诊人数越少;从平均检疫时间来看,前5 d的平均检疫时间至关重要,平均检疫时间越短,确诊人数越少。通过对六国关键参数对比发现,澳大利亚和中国由于实行严格的防疫政策,保护率较高,平均检疫时间较短,因而防疫效果较好。结论:在COVID-19暴发早期,需要实行提高保护率、缩短平均检疫时间的措施,以及严格的隔离政策,抑制COVID-19传播及扩散。

Objective:To explore early prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis.Methods:The data of early outbreak of COVID-19 were collected from the World Health Organization,covering countries of the China,United States,United Kingdom,Australia,Serbia and Italy.The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered(SEIR)model was generalized and then its parameters were optimized.According to the parameters in the basic infection number expression,the sensitivity in the system dynamics model was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of the protection rate,infection rate and average quarantine time on the early spread of the outbreak.Based on the analysis results,targeted prevention and control measures for the early outbreak of COVID-19 were proposed.Results:The generalized SEIR model had a good fit for the early prediction and evaluation of COVID-19 outbreaks in six countries.The spread of COVID-19 was mainly affected by the protection rate,infection rate and average quarantine time.The improvement of the protection rate in the first 10 days was the most important:the greater the protection rate,the fewer the number of confirmed cases.The infection rate in the first 5 days was the most critical:the smaller the infection rate,the fewer the number of confirmed cases.The average quarantine time in the first 5 days was very important:the shorter the average quarantine time,the fewer the number of confirmed cases.Through the comparison of key parameters of six countries,Australia and China had implemented strict epidemic prevention policies,which had resulted in good epidemic prevention effects.Conclusion:In the early stage of the outbreak,it is necessary to improve the protection rate,shorten the average quarantine time,and implement strict isolation policies to curb the spread of COVID-19.