长三角高质量发展的空间动态演变与一体化趋势

Spatial Dynamic Evolution and Integration Trend of High-quality Development in the Yangtze River Delta

文章在传统指标体系的构建方法中融入了文本数据挖掘的思想,通过构造指数测算模型,测度了2012—2017年长三角27个城市高质量发展指数,在此基础上,构造空间动态演化模型与一体化趋势影响因素分析模型,研究了长三角高质量发展空间分布动态演变规律、影响因素以及其一体化演化趋势。结果表明:目前长三角高质量发展处于中等偏下水平,区域内高质量发展差异显著,样本期内27个城市以大概率维持现有水平状态,只以较小概率在相邻状态之间发生转移,不存在跨状态转移现象。在不考虑其他影响因素作用下,未来5年长三角27个城市高质量发展在中等水平出现一体化的概率较大;空间效应模型显示,长三角区域一体化规划着力发展的基础设施、要素市场、科创产业、公共服务等方面对长三角高质量发展具有明显的空间滞后性,在这些经济引擎力的空间作用下,未来5年长三角27个城市高质量发展处于低水平状态的概率大为降低,有望实现长三角高质量高水平一体化发展,发挥高质量引领示范效应。

This paper integrates the idea of text data mining into the traditional index system construction method,and measures the high-quality development index of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2012 to 2017 by constructing index calculation model.On this basis,the spatial dynamic evolution model and integration trend influencing factor analysis model are constructed to study the dynamic evolution law,influencing factors,and integration evolution trend of highquality development spatial distribution in Yangtze River Delta.The results show that the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta is in the lower middle level,and the regional high-quality development difference is significant.In the sample period,27 cities maintain the current level with a high probability,and only transfer between adjacent states with a small probability,and there is no cross state transfer phenomenon.Without considering other factors,27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta will have a high probability of integration in the next five years at a medium level;however,the spatial effect model shows that the infrastructure,factor market,science&innovation industry,and public service that the regional integration planning of the Yangtze River Delta focuses on have obvious spatial lag to the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta.Under the spatial effect of these economic engines,the probability of high-quality development of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta at a low level will be greatly reduced in the next five years,which is expected to realize the high-quality and high-level integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta and give play to the high-quality leading demonstration effect.