基于系统动力学模型的可再生能源消纳保障机制效果模拟

Market Simulation of Energy Consumption Guarantee Mechanism of Renewable Energy Based on System Dynamics Model

为了研究我国当前可再生能源消纳保障机制与电力市场的协同关系,构建了关于消纳量市场与可再生能源电力市场的系统动力学模型,分析了给定条件下不同消纳量权重制定方案对消纳量市场、可再生能源装机增长以及市场电价的影响。以云南省非水可再生能源为算例的模拟研究表明,可再生能源消纳保障机制实施以后,非水可再生能源消纳量市场及电量市场对不同的政策情景反应不同,但可再生能源消纳量和电量的价格都能够在经历一定时期的波动后回复到平衡状态,使可再生能源装机增长率维持稳定,推动可再生能源装机容量的提升。

Under the current renewable energy consumption guarantee mechanism,this paper constructs the system dynamics model of renewable energy consumption market and renewable energy power market,and analyzes the impact of different consumption weight formulation schemes on consumption market,non-aqueous renewable energy installation and market electricity price under given conditions.The results show that non-aqueou renewable energy consumption market and electricity market respond differently to different policy scenarios,and a stable clearing price of the renewable energy consumption and energy power can be fromed in the long term under the mediation of market mechanism after a period of fluctuation,which ensures the stabilization of growth rate of renewable energy,and the promotion of the installed capacity of renewable energy.