集合预报在深水钻井平台避台气象保障中的可行性探讨

Feasibility study on the application of ensemble forecast in avoiding typhoon for deepwater drilling platforms

热带气旋在夏、秋两季对我国南海海域钻井平台的袭扰,往往影响了海上油气勘探开发的正常进度,因此准确有效的避台气象预报显得十分必要。本文以南海某深水钻井平台针对热带风暴“海葵”的数值预报为例,对比分析集合预报与确定性预报在不同避台阶段的预报路径和强度,并在此基础上探讨热带气旋长期和中长期集合预报在深水钻井平台避台预报中的可行性。研究结果表明,热带气旋中长期集合预报在路径和强度方面比确定性预报都更为接近实测情况,对深水钻井平台的避台决策有较好的参考价值;热带气旋长期集合预报在预报路径和强度方面都存在一定的规律性误差,但预警台风产生的概率值大于中长期预报结果;通过对长期集合预报结果的修正,以及与中长期集合预报结果的结合等方式,长期集合预报可提供更为精准的避台决策,从而减少避台损失。本文研究结果可为深水钻进平台的避台气象保障提供一定的参考。

The disturbance caused by tropical cyclones on drilling platforms in the South China Sea in summer and autumn often affect the normal progress of offshore oil and gas development.Therefore,accurate and effective weather forecasts for avoiding typhoons is very necessary.In this paper,the numerical forecast of tropical storm“Sea Anemone”by a deepwater drilling platform in the South China Sea was taken as an example to compare and analyze the forecast path and intensity of ensemble forecast and determinate forecast in different stages of avoiding typhoon.In addition,the feasibility of the application of the long-term and medium-term ensemble forecast of tropical cyclones on avoiding typhoon for the deepwater drilling platforms was discussed on this basis.The results of the study show that the long-term and medium-term ensemble forecast of tropical cyclones is closer to the actual measurement than the determinate forecast in terms of path and intensity,and has a good reference value for the typhoon avoidance decision-making for deepwater drilling platforms.The long-term ensemble forecast of tropical cyclones show regular errors in the forecast path and intensity,but the probability value of early warning typhoons is greater than the results of medium-term and long-term forecasts.Through proper correction to the long-term ensemble forecast,and by combining long-term ensemble forecast with medium-term ensemble forecast,etc.,the long-term ensemble forecast can provide more accurate results for the avoiding typhoon decision-making,so as to reduce unnecessary losses.The research results of this paper can provide a certain reference for the weather protection of the deepwater drilling platform to avoid typhoon.