基于水供给服务空间流动模型的渭河流域水资源安全格局

Water Resources Security Pattern of the Weihe River Basin Based on Spatial Flow Model of Water Supply Service

基于VIC模型量化了渭河流域水资源供需平衡关系;构建了水供给服务流动模型,模拟了渭河流域2005年、2010年和2015年的水资源安全格局,利用地理探测器探寻了区域水资源安全的主要驱动力。结果表明:①流域内水资源供需矛盾突出,平均每年有10.89%的地区经上游水资源补给后达到用水安全,补给不充分和未受补给的区域增加,不利于流域可持续发展。②2005年水资源安全指数(WSI)最高,2010年最低。区域WSI的变化是自然要素和人文要素综合作用的结果,其主导因素为农业耗水量和人口。③农业耗水和生活耗水对区域水安全的解释力最强,通过研究发现渭南市农业用水效率过低,西安咸阳市人均生活用水过高。应倡导节水型农业、控制城市用水定额、调整水费、增强居民节水意识以提高流域水资源安全。

Water resource security assessment plays an important role in regional development.However,most studies only focus on the static water security status of the region,ignoring the mobility of ecosystem services.Only by integrating the flow model of ecosystem into the simulation of water security can we provide scientific reference for the protection and management of regional water resources and the formulation of active and effective ecological compensation.Based on VIC Model,this article quantifies the balance between supply and demand of water resources in the Weihe River Basin,constructs the flow model of water supply service,simulates the water resource security pattern in 2005,2010 and 2015,and explores the main driving force of regional water resource security by using geographic detector.The results show that:1)The contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources in the river basin is prominent.On average,10.89%of the area reaches water security after upstream water resources supply.The increase of insufficient and unsupplied areas is not conducive to the sustainable development of the basin.2)The water security index of the Weihe River Basin is the lowest in 2010,and the highest in 2005.The change of regional WSI is the result of the comprehensive effect of natural and human factors,and its leading factors are agricultural water consumption and population.3)Agricultural water consumption and domestic water consumption have the strongest explanatory power for regional water security.Through research,it is found that the agricultural water use efficiency is too low in Weinan city and the per capita domestic water consumption is too high in Xianyang City.Administrator should advocate water-saving agriculture,control urban water quota,adjust water cost and raise residents’awareness of water-saving so as to improve water security in the basin.This study provides a scientific reference for the sustainable development of regional water resources and the construction of ecological compensation mechanism.