中国地下经济规模与影响因素的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Scale and the Determinants of China’s Underground Economy

采用货币需求法和现金比率法测算中国1993—2018年地下经济的规模,结果显示中国地下经济规模相当于GDP的0.89%~20%。并基于可变参数模型和VAR模型分析地下经济规模与其影响因素之间的关系,发现税收、失业率和经济增长率与地下经济规模正相关;公共服务质量与地下经济规模负相关;金融发展水平与地下经济规模关系密切,但影响方向尚未明确。根据实证结果对遏制地下经济活动提出建议。

The scale of China’s underground economy from 1993 to 2018 is calculated by using the demand for currency approach and the general currency ratio method. The results indicate that the scale of China’s underground economy takes 0.89% to 20% of China’s GDP. Based on variable parameter model and VAR model, the paper analyzes the relationship between the scale of underground economy and the determinants. The findings show that taxation, unemployment rate and economic growth rate are positively correlated with the scale of underground economy;the quality of public service is negatively associated with the underground economy;financial development level is closely related with the underground economy, but the impact direction is unknown for the time. Finally, according to the empirical results, this paper puts forward some suggestions on curbing underground economic activities.