2022年北京冬奥会我国运动员奖牌预测与参赛策略--基于奥运会主场优势效应分析

Medal Forecasts and Competition Strategies for Chinese Athletes in the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games--Based on Olympic Home Advantage

以近10届冬奥会(第14—23届冬奥会)东道国为研究对象,系统研究冬奥会主办国金牌数量、奖牌数量、奖牌榜排名、不同运动分项奖牌数量等东道国优势特征,从国家竞技体育发展政策与经费投入、主场观众因素、场地熟悉程度、运动员参赛人数等角度分析冬奥会东道国优势效应产生原因;建立逻辑回归模型,预测我国运动员2022年北京冬奥会奖牌数量将创冬奥会参赛史最好成绩。借鉴冬奥会东道国办赛经验,提出我国运动员备战2022年北京冬奥会、创造冬奥会最佳参赛成绩策略:1)妥善应对疫情,实现参赛出彩目标;2)突出优势项目,确保运动员争金夺牌;3)利用场地优势,实现运动成绩新突破;4)适应观众氛围,发挥运动员最佳竞技状态;5)补齐项目短板,赛出运动员风格与水平。

This paper analyzes the host countries of the last 10 Winter Olympic Games from 1984 to 2018(namely theⅩⅣtoⅩⅩⅢOlympic Winter Games),systematically reviews the home advantage indicators including the number of gold medals,the number of medals,countries’ranking positions as well as their performance in different winter sport disciplines.The cause of such home advantage has been studied from multiple perspectives such as government elite sports policies and investments,support of the home audience,familiarity with the venues as well as the size of the home team,and a logit regression model has been built to forecast that the Chinese athletes will win the biggest share of medals in history in the Beijing 2022 Olympic Games.Based on the experience of the host country of the Winter Olympic Games,this paper puts forward the strategies for Chinese athletes to prepare for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games and create the best performance in the Winter Olympic Games:1)An appropriate response to the COVID-19 epidemic should be strengthened to meet the goal of best sport performance;2)dominant sport disciplines should be focused on to ensure that the athletes win medals;3)familiarity with the venues should be utilized to enhance athletes’performance;4)support of the home audience should be accommodated to bring out the best performance of athletes;5)weak sport disciplines should be strengthened to show the spirit and endeavor of the host-country athletes.