长三角地区高技术产业集聚、技术创新与绿色发展——基于PVAR模型的实证研究

High-tech Industry Agglomeration,Technological Innovation,and Green Development in the Yangtze River Delta:An Empirical Study Based on PVAR Model

采用2008—2017年长三角地区三省一市的面板数据,基于PVAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法,检验高技术产业集聚、技术创新与绿色发展三者之间的长期动态关系变化,并将长三角地区41城分成中心区与次区域比较研究。结果表明,短期内长三角地区技术创新促进高技术产业集聚、抑制绿色发展;分地区结果显示,中心区与次区域发展存在差异;长期来看,三者之间的影响关系存在时变效应,且变量之间的动态关联度未能达到高效调动。基于此,提出合理推进高技术产业集聚,提高技术创新水平,促进绿色发展的对策建议。

Based on the panel data of three provinces and one city in the Yangtze river delta region from 2008 to2017,this paper empirically tested the long-term dynamic relationship among high-tech industry agglomeration,technological innovation and green development based on the PVAR model,impulse response function,variance decomposition and other methods.And 41 cities in the Yangtze river delta,region are divided into central area and sub-area.The results show that,in the short term,the technological innovation in the Yangtze river delta region promotes the agglomeration of high-tech industries and restrains the green development.The regional results show that there are differences between central and sub-area development.In the long run,the influence relationship among the three variables has time-varying effects,and the dynamic correlation between the variables fails to achieve efficient mobilization.Based on this,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the agglomeration of high-tech industries,improve the level of technological innovation and promote green development.