高铁提速情景下出行者“空铁抉择”的动态演化博弈

Dynamic Gaming on Traveler’s Behavior of Picking High-speed Train or Airplane Against Train Speed-up

为了探究高铁提速情况下用户出行选择高铁和民航动态适应过程,基于效用理论构建出行方式博弈收益矩阵,建立基于Logit动态的交通方式选择演化博弈模型,并对模型的平衡点和演化稳定性以及参数取值进行分析。以京沪起讫点(corigin-destination,OD)点对间的高铁、民航行程时耗与票价作为参照基准,将收益函数进行时间均一化转换,设定两种高铁提速情形,并对其价值收益进行对比分析。基于数值仿真探讨出行者“空铁抉择”的动态演化过程以及提速背景下竞争区间的变化。结果表明:高铁提速会吸引更多出行者,在400 km/h和600 km/h两种提速情形下其分担率上升至58.31%和72.73%,同时高铁运行速度提高会使空铁激烈竞争区间向更远的出行距离扩展。

To study the dynamic change with traveler’s pick of high-speed rail(HSR)train or airplane against HSR speed-up,a game payoff matrix of travel mode was constructed based on the utility theory,and an evolutionary game model on mean of traveling based on Logit dynamic was established.The static equilibrium,evolutionary stability,and parameter analysis of the model were analyzed mathematically.The duration and ticket price by HSR train or airplane between given two points of Beijing-Shanghai railway line as the benchmark,the payoff function was transformed into time homogenization.Two scenarios of HSR speed-up were set up and the profit was compared and analyzed.Based on the mathematical simulation,the dynamic variation of the traveler pick of HSR train or airplane,and the corresponding change of competition range under the background of HSR speed-up were discussed.Results indicate that the HSR speed-up will attract more passengers,and its share rate will rise to 58.31% and 72.73% of the total ridership under the HSR speed-up of 400 km/h and 600 km/h,respectively.Meanwhile,the increase of HSR running speed would intensify the rivalry between HSR train vs aviation when travel distance extends.