国际石油市场2020年回顾与2021年展望

2020 Review and 2021 Prospect of International Oil Market

2020年,受新冠疫情冲击,石油需求大幅萎缩,国际石油市场供应严重过剩,石油库存一度创下历史最高水平,炼油毛利空前低迷,上游投资大幅削减,国际油价触及2005年以来新低。2021年,由于欧美疫情防控效果不佳、疫苗接种推广困难重重,石油需求仍难恢复疫情前水平。为缓解供应过剩压力、推升油价,以沙特、俄罗斯为核心的OPEC+将继续合作减产,美国页岩油、加拿大油砂等非OPEC供应艰难复苏,供需再平衡与去库存将成为石油市场主旋律。预计2021年国际油价同比上涨,建议布伦特均价参考区间为50~60美元/桶。此外,地缘政治局势、美元走势等不确定性因素可能对油价产生扰动,应予以密切关注。

The oil market in 2020,impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic,witnessed a sharp drop in oil demand,a serious oversupply,a record high oil inventory,an unprecedented downturn in refining margins,a substantial reduction in upstream investment,and a lowest oil price since 2005.Oil demand will not recover to the pre-epidemic level in 2021,due to poor prevention and control of the epidemic in Europe and the United States and difficulties in the promotion of vaccination.In order to ease the pressure of oversupply and push up oil prices,OPEC+led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue to cut production.Meanwhile,non-OPEC supply including US shale oil and Canadian oil sands is struggling to recover.Therefore,the rebalancing of supply and demand and destocking will become the main theme of the oil market.It is expected that,international oil price will rise in 2021,with Brent average price ranging between$50~$60/barrel.In addition,uncertainties such as the geopolitical situation and the trend of the U.S.dollar may affect oil prices and should be closely watched.